SCENARIO: Assume the U.S. received the following warning from a reliable human source, who has reported reliably for the past 5 years, and has the access and motivation to report. The source obtained the information from a sub-source who has unknown access, reliability, and motivation. The source knows the sub-source personally and has worked professionally with the sub-source but has been out of contact for over one year. Click to read Intel Notes
You are the Presidents newly-named interim National Security Advisor, having been given the position less than a month ago following a flurry of tweets. You are generally responsible for coordinating national security proposals from the National Security Staff, the IC agencies, and other Cabinet-level and federal organizations. You need to prepare a brief summary of the options available for the President, addressing military, intelligence and law enforcement, to be presented with the next PDB briefing. The NSC staff raised the following key intelligence and policy questions, to serve as a guide:
Is there a national security threat and, if so, why is it a national, vice a local threat?
How many law enforcement and protective resources should we devote and for how long? Which agency should be the lead? Local law enforcement, FBI, CIA, State Police, DHS, CBP, DNI, NCTC, National Guard?
Which federal, state, and local agencies should be notified or would you do a broad alert to every local law enforcement agency in the U.S.?
Should we alert the public and the media? If so, what specific information would you share and in what forum?
Should we increase security presence or would that tip our hand and possibly reveal our sources? Should the National Guard be called out to increase visibility at airports and train and bus stations?
Do we need to put FEMA on stand-by?
What, if anything, should be done diplomatically to alert our international partners?
Should we share the raw intelligence with other nations at the risk of jeopardizing the source? Or could that help them identify the suspects? Should we share with the Five Eyes, NATO, and/or bilaterally? Whats the process to share that information with our partners?
Should the President conduct a news conference or release a statement, or should that be left to DHS or local agencies?
Which agencies coordinated on your response?
Please remember the President is a busy person and the summary has to be orderly, articulate, and logical. The President does not like long written documents which bounce back and forth between topicsensure you’re telling the story in an organized manner, using headings to help guide the discussion. It doesn’t have to contain every small detail since you will likely be in the room while he reads your product, but document and cite your sources extensively in the event he takes the paper to go.
Required Readings:
DHS Risk Lexicon [Link] https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/dhs_risk_lexicon.pdf (Scan)
TRADOC G2, U.S. Army, Handbook No. 1.01, Terror Operations: Case Studies in Terrorism, July 25, 2007 [Link]
Mineta Transportation Institute, Terrorist Attacks On Public Bus Transportation: A Preliminary Empirical Analysis, MTI Report WP 09-01, March 2010, [Link]
Mineta Transportation Institute, Explosives and Incendiaries Used in Terrorist Attacks on Public Surface Transportation: A Preliminary Empirical Examination, MTI Report 09-02, March 2010, [Link] available at http://transweb.sjsu.edu/MTIportal/research/publications/documents/2875-IED-Support-Research.pdf
U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Transit Administration, Transit Security Design Considerations, November 2004, [Link] (See Appendix A for a list of terrorist attacks against public transportation)
Recommended Readings
Best, Richard A., The National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC)Responsibilities and Potential Congressional Concerns, Congressional Research Service, December 19, 2011, available at http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/intel/R41022.pdf