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Social Security Reserves Expected to Be Depleted in 2035, Year Later Than Prior Projection

Economic growth bolstered trust fund, pushing out date for when benefits could be diminished

By 

Andrew Duehren

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Updated June 2, 2022 4:19 pm ET

WASHINGTON—The rapid economic recovery from the brief recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has helped bolster the finances of Social Security, though the program still faces stark long-term challenges, the latest government projection found.

In an annual report released Thursday, trustees for the Social Security Trust Funds said they anticipate that the program’s combined reserves will be depleted in 2035,  one year later than projected last year. Stronger-than-expected economic growth since last year has generated more in payroll taxes, which provide much of the funding for Social Security. People are also seeking the program’s disability payments at a lower rate.

Once Social Security’s reserves run out, revenue will pay for roughly 80% of scheduled benefits, according to the report, unless Congress steps in. Social Security’s cost exceeded its income in 2021, a pattern that the trustees expect in all future years.

Social security benefits are adjusted for inflation, and the trustees wrote in their report that they expect payments to increase 3.8% next year due to inflation. But since making that projection in mid-February, administration officials now say they expect the cost-of-living adjustment to be roughly 8% as inflationary pressures persist.

Annual inflation has been trending above 8% in recent months, near a four-decade high, according to the Labor Department’s consumer-price index.

The administration officials said that higher payroll-tax revenue from rising wages and labor growth is keeping up with the higher costs, though, meaning that inflation is having a largely neutral impact on the program’s finances.

Social Security consists of two programs, one for retirees and the other for people who claim disability benefits. The retirement program’s trust fund alone is projected to last until 2034, while the disability program’s trust fund is now forecast to cover benefits through the 75-year projection window in 2096. Last year’s report estimated the disability fund would run out in 2057.

A parallel report on Medicare similarly showed projections for the program’s finances improving. Reserves for Medicare’s hospital insurance fund are now forecast to run out in 2028, two years later than previously projected, according to the trustees’ report.

While the Covid-19 pandemic created a series of disruptions in the Medicare and Social Security programs, the trustees wrote they don’t believe it will have any long-term impacts on their finances.

More broadly, the programs face a long-term financial challenge: the aging of the baby boomer generation and a long-term decline in fertility rates. As a larger share of the population taps into the programs, costs will grow. At the same time, a comparatively smaller share of the population will be working and paying into the program, a shift that will require Congress to either raise payroll taxes or cut benefits—or a combination of both—in the long term, administration officials said.

One Small Step for Social Security

Capping the maximum benefit is a promising step toward solvency.

By 

Andrew G. Biggs

Jan. 30, 2023 6:10 pm ET

Social Security remains the largest federal spending program. After Medicare, it’s the second-largest driver of long-term deficits. As the new Republican House majority looks to rein in the budget, Social Security reforms could be on the table.

Though vital to addressing the national debt, getting a comprehensive reform package—or any major entitlement reform—through Congress will be tough. Instead, lawmakers might consider a simple but meaningful start: capping the maximum retirement benefit. A cap would put a dent in Social Security’s 75-year funding gap of more than $20 trillion and send a message that government benefits to high-income retirees can’t be unlimited.

Social Security is often described as a safety net against poverty in old age. But if every senior simply received a benefit equal to the 2022 poverty threshold—just over $14,000 for a single retiree and about $17,600 for couples—Social Security’s $1.3 trillion annual cost for 2023 would be nearly cut in half.

Social Security is expensive because it’s more than a safety net: The average new retiree in 2021 received an annual benefit of nearly $21,000, 1.5 times the poverty threshold without counting their own savings. And the highest-earning Americans receive even more than that, with the maximum benefit at the normal retirement age of 67 coming in at $42,238 in 2023. This blows through any reasonable idea of a safety net: It’s more than three times the federal poverty threshold and about 5% higher than the median employee’s salary in the U.S. It’s also two to three times higher than the maximum benefit paid in the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

Social security’s maximum benefit increases every year. In 2000 it was about $28,300 in inflation-adjusted dollars, about a third less than today. By 2035 the maximum Social Security benefit will  reach $49,825 and by 2050 it will rise to $59,234.

For a single, high-income retiree $42,238 should be more than enough to get by in most parts of the country. That’s why, in future years, the maximum Social Security retirement benefit should be capped at the 2023 value, adjusted for inflation. Retirees entitled to less would receive their benefit as promised, but those entitled to more would be limited to that amount.

To receive the top benefit, a person must have worked 35 years or more at the maximum salary taxable by Social Security, which would have averaged to about $117,000 a year for someone retiring today. It’s likely that these Americans are already saving for retirement on their own, with total national retirement savings having more than doubled in the past two decades.

Would capping the maximum benefit be enough to fix Social Security? Not even close. I estimate that by 2050, average benefits for new retirees would be about 12% lower, driven entirely by reductions for retirees with the highest benefits without changing benefits for typical retirees. Though a move in the right direction, further changes are needed to guarantee the program’s solvency.

A better approach would not merely cap the maximum benefit, but boost benefits for low earners and provide every worker access to a retirement plan. But after nearly four decades of congressional neglect, a journey of $20 trillion can start with one small step.

Mr. Biggs is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He has been nominated to serve on the Social Security Advisory Board.

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