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• Subject Code :

  CVEN9612

• Country :

  Australia

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Assignment Task

You are given 40 years of daily rainfall, flow and atmospheric variables for a study catchment. Daily rainfall is available at five locations over the catchment while daily values of the selected atmospheric variables, identified as significant for driving rainfall over the study area, are available for current and future time periods from a carefully chosen General Circulation Model (GCM). Aim is to first bias correct the time series of atmospheric variables, use it as an input to a daily rainfall downscaling model to get the rainfall projections for a future climate, and feed the rainfall projections to a pre-calibrated daily rainfall-runoff model and simulate flows. The final part relates to the analysis of changes in the flow behaviour given assumed demand and a reservoir storage capacity.

Data available:

1) Daily rainfall (in mm) at 30 locations (1961-2000)

2) Daily time series of 5 identified atmospheric variables for

a) Observed time period (1961-2000) – Reanalysis data – 40 years

b) Current climate GCM data (1961-2000) – CSIRO mk3 GCM – 40 years

c) Future climate GCM data (2051-2090) – CSIRO mk3 GCM – 40 years

3) Daily flow series at the catchment outlet (in mm) (1961-2000)

4) Daily evaporation time series over the catchment (in mm) for current (1961-2000) and future (2051- 2090) time periods (obtained from GCM simulations that have been corrected for biases already).

Software/program available

1) Data extraction tool- to extract rainfall and atmospheric variables unique to each student

2) Multivariate Bias Correction (MBC) software to bias correct atmospheric variables

3) Multisite Rainfall Downscaling (MRD) software

4) Rainfall-runoff modelling tool

The whole exercise involves four main steps.

1) Extract basic data to be used in the assignment.

2) Bias correction of extracted atmospheric variables

3) Applying downscaling model (MRD) using extracted rainfall and bias corrected atmospheric variables.

4) Use rainfall-runoff modelling tool to obtain time series of observed and simulated (current/future time periods) monthly flows over the catchment for all downscaled daily rainfall simulations. And, finally analysing the results.

Your task is to perform following key assessments:

1) Present a brief summary of the changes in the rainfall behaviour in the future including changes in averages extremes and wet and dry spells.

2) Assess the change in the empirical flood frequency distribution between the current and future period simulations. Comment on how much this change is a function of changes in rainfall extremes, compared to evaporation change.

3) From the flow simulations, estimate a Storage vs. Probability of failure (for probabilities of failure up to 30%) relationship for the dam monthly inflows and water demand data using historical and modelled flows. The release policy to be used in this question is to release fully the demanded water if it is available in storage. Monthly water demand is assumed to remain same in current and future time periods. You may need to set up the reservoir simulation model for this task in Excel or a similar environment.

• Monthly water demand + losses for current conditions in mm: DJF: 7.1 mm/month; MAM: 6.4 mm/month; JJA: 6.5 mm/month; SON: 7.2 mm/month

• Actual storage capacity of the dam: 175 mm

Present plot of Storage vs. Probability of failure for historical and modelled flow series (multiple realisations). Use the demand specification from the table above and comment on likely changes if the draft were greater/smaller. Assess the change in reservoir yield in the future time period. Present a brief summary of the changes in the flow behaviour in the future.

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• Uploaded By : Brett

• Posted on : December 23rd, 2019

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