After lengthy discussions between Brussels and London, no agreement can be found to address the NI protocol governing trade controls between Britain and Ireland in the Irish Sea. The situation gets out of hand and the Brexit trade deal with the EU must be abandoned.
WTO tariffs are in place. A 3% import duty tariff must now be paid by UK importers on your UK groll exports. Your hard Brexit worst-case medium-term plan forecasts that with further efficiencies achieved with a new production line, you will be able to cover these costs and any forecast forex fluctuations.
However, a 30% tariff now applies on your imports of key high-end pre-roll assemblies from Hull. This cost will make your end product no longer competitive in either the UK or EU. Luckily, as part of your Brexit risk management plan from 2017, you identified a Canadian assembly supplier of high-end preroll assemblies. Importantly, no tariffs apply since 2017 because of the CETA deal. Although 6% more expensive to deliver by air freight to Shannon, your business is still forecasted as profitable.
In addition, since April 2023 you now have two new American customers who you will supply directly because of the high volume required: i. a large, demand-led, retail chain customer in the US requiring variable high volumes; ii. a large Brazilian retailer chain requiring a fixed volume each month and using air freight from Dublin.
Lastly, a small start-up company in Nenagh, which does not compete with you has begun to order a small fixed volume of unmodified protocols you have in stock from you each month since March 2023. The owner is an old friend and it’s cheaper to order from you than to try and import small quantities. These are directly used by the Nenagh firm to manufacture exclusive, high-end, once-off, customized quarries ordered as required by Netjets in Malta. Once received by air freight from Shannon, Netject then sends these as presents to be delivered by express post to their key celebrity customers all over the world at the end of every year.